Forsman takes Mitsubishi Championship lead

Golf Betting Lines

01/21/2012 - Kaupulehu-Kona, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Forsman torched the back nine in 30 strokes Saturday to take the second-round lead of the Mitsubishi Electric Championship.

Forsman, who needed only nine putts on the back nine and 21 for the round, fired a seven-under 65 and finished 36 holes at 12-under 132. He leads by two strokes at Hualalai Golf Course, the site of the season-opener on the Champions Tour.

Tom Watson (65), Brad Bryant (64) and Jeff Sluman (66) are tied for second place at 10-under 134.

It was a tale of two nines for the leader on Saturday.

Forsman had a very average opening nine with eight pars and a lone birdie the par-five seventh. After the turn, he birdied 10 and 11, then played his final six hole brilliantly to surge to the top of the leaderboard.

At the 13th, Forsman's approach stopped nine feet from the hole and he poured in the birdie effort. He pitched his third at the par-five 14th to three feet and converted the short birdie putt to join the group in the lead at 10-under par.

After pars at 15 and 16, Forsman's tee ball at the par-three 17th came to rest 20 feet from the flagstick. He watched as his playing partner Michael Allen missed from a similar spot and the lesson paid off handsomely. Forsman poured in the birdie effort to take sole possession of first at minus-11.

Forsman's drive at the closing hole left him with a tricky angle to the pin, but it hardly mattered. He stuffed his approach inside four feet and rolled in the birdie putt to grab a two-shot lead.

"It was an exciting back nine for me," Forsman said in a televised interview. "I got off to a little bit of a rough start. The back nine I caught fire and finished 30 on the back for a 65."

Forsman endured through a rough 2011 season. He posted only one top 10, a tie for fourth at the Montreal Championship, but his 2012 has showed quite a bit of promise.

"I'm thrilled to be in the position I'm in," Forsman said on TV. "Early in the year, I'm getting started here. It's been magnificent at this point, hopefully it'll finish up nice tomorrow for me."

Allen bogeyed the last for a four-under 68. He is tied for fifth place with Jay Haas, who carded a three-under 69 Saturday, at nine-under 135.

Defending champion John Cook (67), Jay Don Blake (67), Denis Watson (67), Loren Roberts (70) and first-round co-leader Bruce Vaughan (71) share seventh at eight-under 136.

NOTES: Forsman owns two Champions Tour victories - 2009 AT&T Champions Classic and 2010 Regions Charity Classic...First-round co-leader and reigning Champions Tour Player of the Year Tom Lehman only managed an even-par 72 and is tied for 12th at seven-under par...Fred Couples shot a six-under 66 and shares 14th at minus-six.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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